Saturday, July 31, 2010

Deadline Deals: The Ranter's Take

The Dodgers' series will get the full rant once it's done. First I'd like to take a moment to sound off on the Giants' moves as the non-waiver deadline came and went. They actions taken by the Giants front office said a lot about the team, how it values players, and what we can expect from this organization moving forward.

In short, they don't have the first damn clue.

Several things are evident. First, there is no plan. Second, the Giants are hopelessly enamored with small sample sizes. And third, they think pitching is the beat all end all and are utterly convinced they can keep on pulling 2-1 wins out of their collective backsides.

To be sure, the Giants needed relief help. It stands to reason that the acquisitions of Javier Lopez from Pittsburgh and Ramon Martinez from the BoSox help the pen, if for no other reason than two of the clowns now on the roster should be forced to pack their bags -- although if Sabean could field a team with 25 pitchers he'd most certainly do so. But let's be honest, the Giants just dumped arguably their best minor league stick and two hurlers for a pair of situational guys with VERY average career stats. This was a "we gotta do something" move and not a "these are the difference makers" type of trade.

Which brings me to sample size. In two of the three games leading up to the deadline, the Giants scored runs but saw the bullpen implode. So, in true Saban fashion, the decision was made that the offense was just fine, thank you very much, but we need pitchers. Typical. Again we see a glaring weakness ignored.

Clearly the Giants are unable to get anything of real value in trade. That being said, you have to ask: is it because Sabean is inept or because no one thinks much of what he has to offer? Proably a bit of both, but the actions taken certainly ask one to question the value of Giants "prospects."  Follow the bouncing ball.

The Giants deal John Bowker, who beat out Nate Scheirholtz for the opening day right field job when Nate had the audacity to go three consecutive ABs in spring training without driving something from Scottsdale to Tucson on the fly. That was enough for the Giants to bench one guy and pronounce another the cure. Of course, when Bowker struggled  he suddenly wasn't the popular blonde and got shipped back to Fresno in favor of Andres Torres. When Rowand struggled, Torres moved to center and Rowand esssentially lost his job to the combo of waiver wire parolee Pat Burrell and Buster Posey, with Huff moving to the outfield.

With me so far?

Now Bengie Molina, who never should have been signed, gets mercifully dealt. Posey goes behind the dish, the Giants start playing five-man roulette with the outfield, and first base ends up a combination of Huff, Posey, Ishikawa and Sandoval. Finally, less than four months after the Giants pronounced Bowker to be "the guy," he gets traded for a rosin bag, and to sweeten the deal the Giants had to give up a hurler that they had pronounced the next big thing in 2009.

You can't make this stuff up. They gotta be crafting decsions based on a combination of Ouja Boards, Tarot cards, a voodoo preistess' reading of chicken entrails, and something of an herbal nature borrowed from Tommy Chong. Trying to connect the dots is like trying to make sense of a Rorschak test as interpreted by Picasso.

The Padres and Dodgers both made upgrades at the deadline. Why not the Giants? Perhaps because opposing GMs don't place any value on what the Giants have to offer -- a stunning indictment of both the farm system and the collective efforts of the Giants' player evaluation department.

Apparently the Giants are the only organization who believe these guys are worth more than day-old bread. Others look at the cupboard and find very few attractive morsels. As the Giants continue to talk out of both sides of their mouths -- telling fans how good Player X is going to be only to later dump him as low grade dog food -- they destroy any credibility they might have had.

Ford spent a lot of time telling people how wonderful the Pinto was, but shoppers quit buying when they started blowing up. Same with Giants prospects. Someone might take one in trade for a used Maverick with an exhaust leak, but if you're looking for value towards a quality purchase you will be disappointed. You might get enough to buy one of those pine tree air fresheners.

Did the Giants need to bolster the pen? Yes, but that was one of many needs. Last I looked, the name of the game was to score more runs than the other guy. To do that, you do actually have to score. The Giants don't do so consistently.

This all comes down to the Giants total refusal to deal established pitching. If they're so good at developing arms, why zealously hold onto mediocre talents like Jonathan Sanchez? Across the Bay, Billy Beane has made a career out of buying low and selling high. If dealing Sanchez would fill a hole, that's where his real value lies.

There were winners and losers at the deadline. In a three-team race, two got significantly better. The third wears orange and black.

Friday, July 30, 2010

The Moment of Reckoning is Here

Computers have these wonderful things called “macros”. You save a certain phrase, sentence or paragraph so that you can use it again and again with just a few keystrokes. It’s a great time saver if you know what you wrote once is gonna be used again.

I think I’ll save this little tidbit from the Marlins’ series:

“Once again the starting pitchers did their jobs, the bullpen failed miserably, and it was up to the offense to prove it was worth the collective oxygen it sucks out of the universe. Evidence that either bullpen or offense is anything better than mediocre was less than convincing.”

That’s a bit of a downer considering the Giants have just won 13 of 17, but after surviving a stretch in which they played 18 of 22 games on the road you would expect more than a four-game split with the Marlins.

For Florida, which entered and exited AT&T with a .500 record, a sister kiss on enemy ground is a decent achievement. For the Giants, who came in at 56-43, going two and two on home turf had to be a disappointment.

Saying the series was a disappointment was like saying Jeffrey Dahmer was a disappointment to his parents. Disappointment? This was bordering on Greek tragedy.

We can bag on Zito and Cain for their inability to keep the ball in the park, but the fact remains that both provided what the stat geeks would call a “quality start.” Sanchez still couldn’t last five frames but it was the bullpen went nuclear, and Bumgarner showed he’s still learning but could have thrown a no-hitter and lost for all the help he got.

The bullpen continues to be atrocious. Watching the Giants blow a 9-2 lead sent visions of Ryan Spilborghs through my brain (see Post #1 if you’ve been more successful than I in blocking the memory). Only Andres Torres’ 4-for-6 day saved the Giants from what I’m convinced would have been a plunge into the abyss.

Of course, inspired by that Houdini-esque escape act the Giants came out the next day and played dead. I’m not talking about sluggish. They literally had no pulse. George Romero movies have more life-like characters. Only Panda’s dying quail helped the Giants avoid being the victim of the year’s sixth no-no. It was a stunning performance worthy of note in any newsletter expounding the virtues of the mortuary sciences.

Radio talk shows, the papers and the blogosphere have varying verdicts on whether or not the Giants are better off than they were last year. Certainly the big run over the past three weeks has built excitement. Heck, we all want to believe.

The cold hard fact is that the Giants are 58-45. At the same point last year they were 56-47. A two-game improvement over the span of 103 is nothing to write home about, and that 2009 team finished in third place -- seven games out. Pardon me if I’m not ordering playoff tickets just yet.

The 2009 Giants had no offense, poor middle relief, and a middle infield more suited to one of those leagues where they keep a keg behind second base. The 2010 Giants have no offense, poor middle relief, and a middle infield more suited to one of those leagues where they keep a keg behind second base. I detect a trend.

Time for Brian Sabean to earn his money.

The Giants have to acquire some on-field help. The kind of deal I imagined evaporated when Roy Oswalt and J.A. Happ traded uniforms. I figured Philadelphia might be the only team willing to take on Rowand, who remains a fan favorite in the world battery toss capitol. Rowand and Sanchez for Werth and Happ made sense to me. The Giants would have needed to work with Werth on an extension, but even if he walked at season’s end the Giants would have rid themselves of a $24 million albatross while swapping an erratic lefty for a pitcher who doesn’t go 3-2 on every hitter. So much for that.

Current speculation centers around acquisition of a left-handed outfield bat or middle reliever, but those spots are going to be hard to fill. There aren’t a lot of players who seem to be a match for the Giants who wouldn’t cost, at the least, Madison Bumgarner (Sanchez I’d deal in a heartbeat). Rather than burn a prospect on someone who might be only a marginal upgrade a la Ryan Garko (thank God the Giants were outbid for Podsednik), I’d prefer they address the glaring hole at shortstop.

Edgar Renteria is a shadow of his former self. Yes, he was a World Series hero – as a 20-year-old rookie. The current version is 35, an inconsistent fielder with limited range and durability issues, and his once clutch bat is now the weakest part of his game. He had a big homer in Tuesday’s game – a bomb that doubled his season total and accounted for the only time he’s gone deep in his last 30 outings. He’s amassed a whopping eight RBIs in that span. In the Florida series that homer was his ONLY hit.

In his two seasons with the club he’s been a contributing member for about an hour and a half. His 2009 campaign was a joke, and after a hot start this year he went into the tank. Now I hear the argument “But he’s been injured.” Yeah, so? Since joining the club, when has he NOT been injured?

Uribe can’t play short on a regular basis because, well, to put it kindly, you need your shortstop to cover the ground with his legs and glove, not his rather immense shadow. There are no options on the farm: Manny Burris is proving to be more suited to second base, and our candidates at the lower levels are waging ongoing love affairs with the Mendoza line. The answer lies outside the organization. The Diamondbacks and Mariners are in fire sale mode and looking to move Stephen Drew or Jack Wilson. Go get one.

Over the next 16 games the G-men face every team in the division except Arizona. They get three-gamers with LA and San Diego at The Big Phone, and only a four-game series at Atlanta screams “trouble.” By August 15 we’ll know if this was real or a mirage.

It’s Waterloo, make or break, D Day, zero hour, (insert your favorite metaphor here). After this run the Giants will see the Pads and Dodgers 10 more times combined, none before Sept 9, and the first four with San Diego are in Tijuana Heights. By then it’s too late to do anything but pray – especially with the Giants playing six of their last nine on the road.

It starts tonight with The Hated Dodgers in town. The Giants get to throw the top of their rotation, Kershaw’s suspension means the LA rotation is tweaked, and Joe Torre probably had Don Mattingly fitted for restraints. LA isn’t hitting, so this is the Giants’ chance.

A 3 ½-game bulge by San Diego isn’t insurmountable, especially in August, but the Padres have the second best record in baseball over their last 162. They aren’t a fluke, and they aren’t coming back to the pack.

To win the West, the Giants will have to hunt them down.

Monday, July 26, 2010

Giants on Hot Streak (sort of)

In repsonse to my post "So Why Am I Not Happy?", DrBGiantsfan said...

"Still feel the same way after the last 3 games in Arizona? "


Yep, now more than ever. Hey, a win is a win is a win, and if you did nothing but look at the wins and losses, you'd think the Giants were on a roll of epic proportions. You'd be dead wrong. They needed a hot streak. What they got was a confluence of good pitching, poor competition and enemy generosity that occurs with about the same frequency that the Mayan calendar and Roland Emmerich films predict the end of the world.

The old joke is that there are lies, damn lies and statistics. In the Giants case, a weekend series with the Diamondbacks presented the prefect example of how the Win / Loss column doesn't tell the whole story. For three of the four games the Giants offense didn't show up. Arizona gave away one game with errors and refused the gift when the Giants tried to similarly surrender the series finale.

For awhile it seemed the Giants were going to leave Matt "Hard Luck" Cain high and dry again in Game One, but a couple of late runs made it a bit easier for Cain to pick up his eighth win. In 17 innings against the D-backs this year, Cain has allowed just four hits, three walks and zero runs. Add in a long ball and some great defense from Torres, and the Giants pop-gun offense proved to be just enough.

I'm starting to soften on Torres. It still could just be the story of an average player having a great year, but I'm now willing to say that this isn't just a streak. Mike Krukow made note of how Torres has revamped his game. I'm willing to believe he's figured something out -- I just pray the great Satan, uh, Sabean, doesn't offer him an outlandish deal in the off season a la Randy Winn. I can see that one coming. They'll re-up Torres and Huff at insane and ill-advised raises, much as they did Uribe this season, and the Giants will once again find themselves unable (or unwilling) to pursue the remedies for their current ills.

You had to know that at some point the bullpen's high wire act was going to lead to disaster. While Game Two had never seemed safe thanks due to Jonathan Sanchez being, well, himself, the implosion of the relief corps was both unfortunate and very predictable. The Giants can't continue to depend on the kindness of strangers (and opposing defenses) for wins. Edwin Jackson can only fire so many bunt attempts into right field (and the way the Giants were weilding the sticks I'm surprised someone didn't swing and miss at those errant throws).

I was listening to the Arizona announcers talk about how stingy the Giants relievers had been since mid June. They didn't mention a lack of quality opposition or the low number of innings they'd pitched over that span, and they totally ignored the number near-death experiences they've made us endure.

You can tell any story you want with a small sample size. Hey, last Friday I was undoubtedly the most attractive man in my office between 3:50 pm and 4:45 pm. I was also the smartest. And the youngest. And the only. But hey, I've got the stats to back up my claims.

There's been something about Santaigo Casilla that bugged me that I just couldn't put a finger on until Friday's outing, I mean something besides his incredible lack of poise or talent or control. Have you ever seen those computer simulations where they take a guy's motion and reduce it to a wire frame? Remove the identifying physical factors and look at his delivery. We've had this guy before -- when his name was Tyler Walker. Sucked then, sucks now. Same kind of motion --  hard, violent and totally out of control. Any strike thrown is the result of pure chance, not command.

Of course, Casilla fit right in after watching Sanchez exhibit the same level of control Evel Knievel showed at the Cow Palace. And the Giants won't trade this guy? His act hasn't changed one lick in his entire Major League career. He's outstanding in one start, abysmal the next, and the third start is anyone's guess. I'd much prefer a hurler who went out every fifth day and gave up three runs over six. That guy won't win a Cy Young but neither will he send fans searching for the nearest bottle of Jose Cuervo by the fourth inning. Plus, the bat he might bring could just help those three runs stand up.

Speaking of the battery, can someone please enlighten me on the value of Whiteside always catching Sanchez? I mean, I could buy it if it was making a difference in Sanchez's outings but there's plenty of evidence to the contrary. A march on Selma doesn't include this many walkers, and Sanchez is routinely hitting triple-digits pitch counts by the fifth inning. Whiteside contributes little offensively. The only threats the Giants have in the current line-up are Posey and Huff, so sitting half of that tandem on a night where you gotta figure you're gonna need runs makes about a much sense as inviting Ghandi over for barbecue.

Game Three was a nail-biter until late when the Arizona bullpen melted down like they were wearing orange and black. But to me the story of the game was one Madison Bumgarner. He was a massive disappointment this spring, but somewhere along the line he flipped the switch. You ask one thing from a pitcher, give your team a chance to win. Mission accomplished.

Since his call-up, MadBum has been sent to the hill six times. He's averaging a shade under seven innings per start with a 2.43 ERA and a solid 1.11 WH/IP. He's 4-2, and with numbers like that you gotta wonder how he lost two (although Matt Cain can offer a few suggstions). He's a keeper, in fact he's much better than a number five. So tell me again why they can't trade Sanchez?

Game Four threatened to follow a disturbing trend. With a chance to sweep, the Giants were flatter than my college girlfriend. Fortunately Buser Posey can hit, Tim Lincecum had the rabbit's foot working, and Sergio Romo's disappearing / reappearing slider returned at just the right moment.

Posey threatens to blow Sabean's rather impressive streak of 147 years and counting without developing a single decent positon player.  Finally a Giants prospect who doesn't fit into the Linden-Minor-Ransom category (meaning he's actually good). A 4-for-5 day at the plate with a pair of doubles was pretty much the only offensive highlight in an otherwise unproductive day, and of course Bochy even tried to screw that up.

Whiteside ran for Posey why, exactly? Really, how many plays do you anticipate on which Posey can't score but Whiteside can? Bochy was just a Travis Ishikawa single away from having to explain why he'd put his best stick on the bench in a tied extra-inning affair while leaving Whiteside batting cleanup. Just say it. "Batting clean-up, Eli Whiteside!" I have auditory haliculations of Kruk and Kuip fighting back the gag reflex. Bochy over manages. He's as in love with the double switch and one-inning relievers as I am with Klondike bars and Cheez-Its, and none is particularly healthy.

Kudos to Ishikawa for saving us from that horror.  Here's yet another of the young kids who can't seem to get a chance to play regularly. Now I can admit that he's maddening at times. He'll look positively lost at the plate, then square something up -- and often those moments occur during the same at bat. He's also a slick fielder, and the Giants need to build up their defense since they certainly aren't helping pitchers with their sitcks.

The subject of defense brings me to my favorite target. Can we now agree that Edgar Renteria has to go? While Lincecum bears responsiblity for surrendering a two-out, two-run two-bagger to the pitcher, that inning was extended by Renta-a-Wreck's inexplicable coverage of second base on a hit and run moments earlier.

Now I understand someone has to cover the bag, but you also have to be mindful of the ball being put in play. Renteria failed to get back to his position because HE NEVER LOOKED as the ball was grounded into the hole he'd just vacated. Nice piece of hitting there, but also clearly evident on replay was the number of steps Renteria took toward the bag before reversing his field on a ball hit behind him. They say the reflexes are the second thing to go (I forget what goes first). Renteria's left about three years ago. His lack of range (which contributed to a pair of singles on Sunday) is maddening enough without adding felony stupid to the equation.

And despite all their warts, the Giants are 56-43, a season-high 13 games over .500, and would be in the post-season if the campaign were to end today. I find that both exciting and troubling. A flawed unit can make a nice run against teams like Arizona, New York, LA and Milwaukee which are poor, struggling or both. But as the Giants prepare for the 100th game of the season, they need help if they intend to take on division leaders San Diego, St. Louis or Atlanta -- against whom the Giants are a combined 5-9. And the thought of a World Series game coming down to Mariano Rivera versus Eli Whiteside is the stuff of which Wes Craven films are made.

The Giants ARE in position. I'm thrilled they're winning. I'm also being realistic. Just because the hot chick agreed to let me buy her a drink doesn't mean she's gonna put out. There's still a lot of work to do, and with the trading deadline coming up Saturday, time is running out.

The G-men return home tonight hoping to fry some fish, with Zito on the hill. He's a much better pitcher at The Big Phone than on the road, and the offense owes him one afer they laid down and died in his last start at LA.

Can we get a new shortstop there by game time?