What Year is This Anyway?

Sometimes I feel like I'm caught  in a time warp. It's as if Doc Brown and Marty McFly really souped up a Delorean, grabbed Bill Murray in transit, and Giants fans get to relive 2002 all over again....except for the good parts.

Sping training is here, so I'll soon spend more time writing about the Giants' rather murky future. But first, one final off-season stab at the powers that be -- whose only real contribution this year is ensuring that poor Timmy Lincecum won’t starve (although how he’ll live on a paltry $23 million over the next two years is beyond me).

My thoughts on Lincecum’s arbitration case are buried in the archive for all to see. And while I advocated not signing him at all, I certainly can’t blame the Giants for the contract they ended up giving the team’s brightest, and probably only, star (sorry Panda, you aren’t there yet). Yes, I actually will say Giants management did something right.

So, can we now borrow Mr. Peabody’s wayback machine and revisit the disastrous Zito, Renteria and Rowand signings? Like I was gonna go back-to-back paragraphs without saying something mean about Brian Satan, uh, Sabean. Man, those Freudian slips are killer.

Now I have to say I was pleased with the Solomon-like wisdom of the Lincecum signing. For those who missed it, Timmy wanted $13 million for one year, the Giants countered with $8 million. The compromise was each camp getting its way for one year with $2 million in signing bonuses tossed in for Lincecum’s trouble. Basically the Giants bought out two years of arbitration for the paltry sum of $11.5 million a year.

Everyone was a winner. Lincecum gets paid, the Giants get some insurance against future disaster, and MLB avoids an arbitration loss would have set a salary precedent no one this side of a Rod Tidwell-channeling Donald Fehr could appreciate. There were, I’m sure, funeral dirges being piped in via Muzak at the MLB headquarters, but I won’t shed a tear since I hold that group in almost as much disdain as I do the Giants front office.

So, you gotta ask yourself, if someone in the Giants front office suddenly grew a brain, why couldn’t that happen BEFORE the immense mental vapor lock that has saddled this team with more bad paper than Michael Milken’s wet dream?

• Renteria: 2 years, $18 million to cultivate his “clutch’ reputation, meaning the rest of the time he’s an unmitigated disaster at the plate.
• Rowand: 5 years, $60 million to flail at sliders low and away like a photo negative of Pedro Feliz.
• And the Zitotross: 7 years, approximately 400 gazillion dollars with an option for year eight that has about as much chance of getting picked up as Aileen Wurornos, and likely with the same disastrous results.

Sadly, those incredibly inept contracts not only didn’t cost anyone a job, they served as no basis for caution when the Giants waded into the free agent pool this off-season.

I operate under the assumption that, if you’re going to write, you also better read. The Mercury News had a great quip  that earns a repeat here:

"In the three years since the Giants divorced themselves from the Barry Bonds era, they have talked repeatedly about getting younger, faster, healthier and homegrown. A glance at their forecast everyday lineup shows virtually none of that is happening. Six of the eight position players are in their 30s and were acquired via free agency or trade. Of those six veterans, three are coming off surgeries, two will try to rebound from sub par years, and the other is Bengie Molina…”

So basically the Giants “youth movement” involves finding guys who have yet to announce their retirement. Glad the Merc finally called the Giants out on it.

The Lincecum signing might have been cause for hope. Here’s a young stud they Giants are trying hard to keep, yet they’re also showing some financial smarts. That would be a lot easier to accept had they not shelled out $12 million for two years of Mark DeRosa and another $3 million for a year of Aubrey Huff. Also, don’t forget that Molina didn’t really take a pay cut (with appearance incentives he’ll equal last year’s $6 million) and the Giants handed out a $2.25 million RAISE to Juan Uribe to return as a utility guy.

Now I'm not a finanicial wizard, but I’d dare say that for the 2010 figure of $17 million-plus I just laid out the Giants could have found someone capable of hitting the ball out of the park without having to pick up their first drive and swing from again behind second base. Funny how that figure is the average annual salary paid to Matt Holiday – who the Giants said was far too pricey. Things that make you go “hmmn.”

The projected starting eight has two guys the Giants can legitimately paint as part of the future: Sandoval and Schierholtz – and you can almost bet that the first time Nate struggles he’ll be replaced by the ghost of Michael Tucker. And the great unknown is that the Giants may still add further to the arthritis army with Kim and Mota among the spring training invitees.

Now I’m not saying that anyone over the age of 30 is worthless (although you don’t see many thirtysomethings on “America’s Next Top Model”, do ya?), but where’s the learning curve here?

The Giants' recent track record in this area is nothing short of abysmal. In addition to the afore-mentioned signings were obvious follies such as the $9 million paid to Dave Roberts last year as he tended to his petunias. Even when they tried to be fiscally reponsible they geeked it. Anyone remember Sabean's claim that the Giants got 11 guys for what they would have paid Vladamir Guerrero? How many of those 11 contributed? Heck, how many were with the team when Bad Vlad's contract in Disneyland expired?

I’m sick to death of the Giants paying lip service to the ida of getting younger, then blowing salary on guys who’s best days came during the Reagan Administration. Sabean is clearly gun shy about young talent, and who can blame him when you recall that this is an organization that proclaimed Cody Ransom to be the future at shortstop and touted "superstars" like Damon Minor and Lance Niekro to be anchors of the team for years to come?

Brian, it’s not that youngsters can be trusted. You can’t be trusted to pick them.

The Giants player development and acquisition program has failed, and failed miserably. Since the Giants last made the postseason, they’ve come up with exactly three players from within the system who contributed – Lincecum, Sandoval and Brian Wilson. Meanwhile we’ve been treated to Kevin Frandsen, Todd Linden and Manny Burriss as our position player highlights.

I've thought long and hard about why the Giants fixate on the proverbial "proven major leaguer" (translation: has-been).  Clearly Sabean still believes it's still 2002. To hear him spin it, ownership decreed that the roster be filled with vets to compliment Barry Bonds, and in 2002 it brought the Giants within a Dusty Baker brain fart of a title. But Bonds is now three years gone, and despite the quips about getting younger, Sabean clearly is bent to continuing along that path. So either he lied about the AARP attack being ownership's call, he knows the "prospects" are nothing of the kind, or some rift in the space time continuum has him eight years behind the rest of us.

You'd think at some point he'd figure out (or someone would enlighten him) that the 2002 team wasn't as good as its mark and that performance was an abberration. Until that happens, or until Wild Bill quits worrying about socks and cans his ass, we Giants fans will continue to be disappointed.

The Giants have a handful of very good, very young pitchers. It would be a shame to see Sabean waste them the way he wasted the greatest hitter of our age (that sin alone should have earned Sabean a pink slip). I dont know that Bumgarner, Posey, Ford, Noonan, et al are the answer. What I am certain is that the likes DeRosa and Molina aren't -- and anything is better than the same old same old.

The Giants point to prosepcts and talk about the future, while the guys they keep brining in epitomize the past. In this scenario, the present isn't even relevant. The Giants need to start thinking about the future yesterday.

Hello, McFly?

I won't get fooled again!

Watching Pete Townshend try to avoid dislocating his shoulder during Super Bowl halftime, I was struck by a thought: are the same people choosing the acts at this fiasco responsible for player acquisition for the Giants?

The Who were great once but are hardly relevant anymore. Anyone under age 30 has no idea what a pinball is, let alone how one might become a wizard at such. I had visions of some 15-year-old asking “Who is that?” and the entire conversation devolving into an Abbott and Costello routine.

I feel much the same way about the newest Giants. Who are these guys, in what millennium were they considered “A” listers, and, finally, what was the friggin’ point?

A year ago I was hopeful the Giants were turning the corner when they parted company with Omar Vizquel. Hey, Omar’s a sure Hall of Famer but not the right fit for a team that needed to get younger. Of course, the Giants screwed that up when they started grading on a curve. Yes, Edgar Renteria is younger, but that’s like saying you’ve begun a youth movement because you finally put up the Christie Brinkley poster to replace Mae West. An improvement? Yes, but that change would have made more sense in 1980.

The Giants made claims about getting younger. There are those who comment on this blog who still think they mean it. No, really! They bought it!

The return of Bengie Molina means Buster Posey likely goes to Fresno while the Giants head into the regular season with two backstops who fondly remember disco. In an age of the Wii and PS3, Mark DeRosa (age 35) and Aubrey Huff (33) recall being enthralled by the technological wonder that was Pong. I’m virtually certain the front office has its collective eye on someone who has more than a passing recollection of where he was when Kennedy was shot.

I find it hard to believe that anyone sat back last October and objectively said DeRosa and Huff would be the key to winning, especially if they brought back Molina (35) and Gimpy Sanchez (the baby of the group at 32).

Yeah, that’s the recipe for a winner. It makes me wonder if mandatory drug testing shouldn’t be extended to the front office. At least the guys they were replacing were, well, replaceable. The average fan would be placated. After all, the Giants were doing something, even if that something equated to treading water. But then….

Byung-Hyun Kimm. Horacio Ramirez. Guillermo Mota. Todd Wellemeyer. Which of these idiots will you be talking about tomorrow (apologies to Keith Olbermann)? These are the guys who are supposed to help this team?

Kim hasn’t pitched in the bigs since he was serving up gopher balls in 2007. Ramirez is a find, he of the 1.68 WHIP and 5.96 ERA. Mota (3-4, 3.44 ERA last year) at least has a track record, although what must have been really impressive is that 14.54 ERA he posted against the Giants’ sluggers row (sarcasm dripping). What alcohol-induced hallucination fueled that move? What, they didn’t believe their own eyes on this one? I thought the idea was to add offense on OUR side.

I was already apoplectic about the Giants' chances in 2010 when along came Wellemeyer. To paraphrase Casey Stengel, he’s 31 and in a year he has a chance to be 32. His stat line for 2009 was a grand and glorious 7-10 in 28 appearances before his arm fell off and he spent the rest of the season alternating between the whirlpool and hypnotherapy. Maybe the idea is to turn him on to some practitioner of holistic hokum in the Castro and hope for the best.

The argument from the Pollyanna crowd is straightforward: these are non-roster invitees so what’s the harm? Well, since we're asking questions, riddle me this, Batman: “Why waste so much as a spring training bunk on any of these guys unless you’re already convinced you’ve got a hole to fill? This only makes sense if the Great Satan, uh, Sabean, believes that disaster will claim any or all of the following: Hinshaw (27), Martinez (26), Pucetas (25), Runzler (25) or Bumgarner (20).

For a decade we’ve been hearing how the Giants have a plethora of young arms ready to make this the dominant staff in the division. Heck, they were so deep that they could deal the number one (Alderson) and three (Barnes) prospects in the organization for a second baseman made of porcelain and spun sugar plus a first baseman that got 100 ABs before being handed bus ticket to Seattle. Now the survivors get to look over their shoulders at a bunch of retreads that are about as relevant as, well, The Who.

The kids are alright, but they have a right to be paranoid. This is the team that screamed about its young homegrown pitching while throwing megadollars at Barry Zito, Matt Morris, Armando Benitez, Emmitt Kelly, Bozo T. Clown, et al.; favoring middling talents like Matt Herges, Tyler Walker and Jim Brower; and dealing the Joe Nathans and Jeremy Accardos of the world for the glories of Shea Hillenbrand and LaTroy Hawkins.

Wow, that’s some track record.

Of course, Giants management also has reason to be paranoid. They saw such touted prospects as Hennessey, Foppert, Ainsworth and the like flame out spectacularly. Granted, they did strike gold with those Nathan and Aardsma kids —oh wait, they’re succeeding for someone else. Yes, Brian, be afraid. Be very afraid. Of yourself.

“Stop me or I might GM again!” There has to be some 12-step program for guys like this. Exactly how much damage are they going to be allowed to do, how many colossal foul-ups will be permitted, before the Giants change both management and direction?

Coming full circle, the last seven Super Bowl halftimes have included just one act that wasn’t a full-fledged AARP member at showtime, and that was Prince when he was 48. The rest of the Polygrip Brigade left me begging for Janet Jackson to come back and whip one out just to relieve the tedium. That’s the way it is with the Giants. God, I never thought I’d miss Kevin Correia.

I’ve gone from underwhelmed to disappointed to absolutely furious with the Giants’ offseason moves. Say it with me: “There is no plan.” There can’t be. To say that there is a grand scheme for on-field success is to believe that someone in charge actually thinks these rejects from the Baseball Follies are the keys to a title.

“Hey, Abbott! Who’s on first?”
“Aubrey Huff.”
“Who cares?”

This is the "future" of the Giants? Somewhere right now, Todd Linden is laughing his ass off.
.

The argument against Tim Lincecum

Seeing the title of this post, someone out there in Orange and Black Land just put his Michelob Ultra through the computer screen and called for my head on a stick. Time to pop a Zanax. Timmy's all right by me.  I am, however, very curious to see how the Giants are going to argue their case when Lincecum's contract goes to arbitration.

Of course, we can start the analysis by wondering how the Giants could be so inept as to bring the kid up at a point in the 2007 season where it was virtually assured he'd be a "Super Two" and earn the right to arbitration a year early. For a team that purports to be fiscally responsible (eliminating the ability to sign "top-tier" free agents), this is just another in the long list of boneheaded moves. It's not eight-years-of-Barry-Zito dumb, but it's not what one would expect out of a team that constantly whines about the need to manage payroll.

It's true that no one could have forseen the success this wunderkind has had -- back-to-back Cy Young campagins despite pitching for a team that is, shall we say, offensively challenged. But considering how the Giants annually tell us how great the young arms are, the law of averages had to work in their favor eventually. After all, they can't all be Brad Hennessey, can they?

The Giants rolled the dice and found a way to lose their chips despite throwing a seven on the come-out. You gotta admire his consistency. Only Brian Sabean could find a way to muck up such a success.

Now the Giants have put themselves in an awkward position: keeping the face of the franchise happy while simultaneously telling him he's not worth what he's asking. Good luck with that. They'd have more success telling Benjie Molina his contract won't include access to the post game spread.

For those of you who missed it, Lincecum's camp submitted an arbitration figure of $13 million. The Giants countered with $8 million. Now to you and me, $8 million is probably financial security for ourselves, our families, the cat, a couple of koi fish and maybe even something more exotic (I'm thinking a wombat would be cool). Heck, the $5 million the two sides are apart would be enough to keep me and mine in surf shoes and sunscreen for a couple of generations. Why wouldn't anyone just take what the Giants have offered and run? Why haven't the two sides reached a Brian Wilson-style compromise? Seems to me that $10.5 million buys a lot of whatever Timmy is stashing under the car seat these days.

The reason is simple: the Giants lowballed their offer. Lincecum's camp has to be absolutely convinced there is no way they'll lose.

Arbitration isn't about compromise. Two sides submit figures and an independent third party picks one or the other. Should the two sides take this thing to the wire, Timmy stands to gain another $5 million on top of the $8 million he's now GUARANTEED to make. The onus is on the Giants to convince the powers that be that Timmy ISN'T worth the extra cheese. That's like telling your main squeeze how much you love her... but you just wish she was someone a little hotter. There's no way that story ends well.

Anyone else see "The Burning Bed"?

The Giants, and Sabean in particular, seem to always be one step behind the curve when looking at the economics of the game, hence their overpayment for stiffs like Rent-a-Wreck and Aaron Rowand. True, baseball has more personalities than Sybil when it comes to dollars and cents but, despite the lower contracts the Orlando Hudsons of the world have been forced to swallow, arbitration figures keep going up.

Here's the problem. In arbitration, a player compares his worth to other players and expects to be paid based on the amount being lavished on his contemporaries. Fair enough. But what happens if you have none? The arbitration rules are very clear. Special circumstances make a player exempt from such comparisons -- and it would seem that winning a Cy Young in each of your first two full seasons would qualify as special. The last "special" player to go this route was Ryan Howard, and his $9 million award set the standard for arbitration. For the Giants to argue that Timmy is worth LESS is both insulting to Lincecum and, probably, tactical suicide for management.

Had the Giants offered $10 million, I'd say they had a fighting chance. But to offer less than an unprecedented amount for an unprecendeted performance was a foolish gamble. To severely undercut the player's figure (the Giants offered a whopping 35 percent less) puts the arbiter in a position where he likely has to take Lincecum's number even if he feels it's excessive. After all, what are the Giants going to argue -- that Lincecum didn't drive in enough runs? They can talk about Howard playing every day as a comparable, but Lincecum need simply point to $20-plus million hurlers like Santana and Sabathia (or across the dugout at Zito) and ask how many Cy Youngs are sitting on their overpriced trophy shelves.

The way I see it, there is only one way to get out of this maze alive. Come arbitration time the Giants simply profess their undying love for Timmy and take what they've got coming. Consider the $13 million a gift -- he could have asked for (and gotten) Sabathia money.

While we're at it, the Giants should ignore the calls to sign Lincecum long term. Since they've chosen this route, see it through. It could be the one responsible thing they do. The guy from Paragraph One just had a stroke, but hear me out.

At $13 million, Lincecum is reasonably priced compared to what the top pitchers are getting. Sign the checks, shut up, and thank the stars that he's under team control for four more years. Let Lincecum set the bar each off-season, and this time make a reasonable offer. If he does well, he'll make more. If he fades, gets hurt, or if the economics of the game go into the tank, his price tag will go down. The Giants won't have another Zitotross hung around their necks.

Consider this: would you take Lincecum right now on a four-year/$70 million contract?  Santana is currently making a $23 million a year for six years and can't stay healthy. Figure Timmy goes to arbration each if the next four years and actually gets raises: let's go $13 million, $15 million and finsh off with two for $20 million or so each. That's a bargain. Only then will the Giants have to decide if a 30-year-old pitcher is worth a franchise deal or if he's the next Kevin Brown.

Lincecum's unprecedented success has also given the Giants an unprecendented opportunity. In the age of guaranteed contracts that pay marginal athletes way too much, the Giants have the chance to actually see a player paid year-to-year based on performance. At the very least it would avoid another year of paying Dave Roberts $9 million to watch his lawn grow.

And four years down the road we can always hope there be an decent GM in place to make that call.