Tuesday, February 2, 2010

The argument against Tim Lincecum

Seeing the title of this post, someone out there in Orange and Black Land just put his Michelob Ultra through the computer screen and called for my head on a stick. Time to pop a Zanax. Timmy's all right by me.  I am, however, very curious to see how the Giants are going to argue their case when Lincecum's contract goes to arbitration.

Of course, we can start the analysis by wondering how the Giants could be so inept as to bring the kid up at a point in the 2007 season where it was virtually assured he'd be a "Super Two" and earn the right to arbitration a year early. For a team that purports to be fiscally responsible (eliminating the ability to sign "top-tier" free agents), this is just another in the long list of boneheaded moves. It's not eight-years-of-Barry-Zito dumb, but it's not what one would expect out of a team that constantly whines about the need to manage payroll.

It's true that no one could have forseen the success this wunderkind has had -- back-to-back Cy Young campagins despite pitching for a team that is, shall we say, offensively challenged. But considering how the Giants annually tell us how great the young arms are, the law of averages had to work in their favor eventually. After all, they can't all be Brad Hennessey, can they?

The Giants rolled the dice and found a way to lose their chips despite throwing a seven on the come-out. You gotta admire his consistency. Only Brian Sabean could find a way to muck up such a success.

Now the Giants have put themselves in an awkward position: keeping the face of the franchise happy while simultaneously telling him he's not worth what he's asking. Good luck with that. They'd have more success telling Benjie Molina his contract won't include access to the post game spread.

For those of you who missed it, Lincecum's camp submitted an arbitration figure of $13 million. The Giants countered with $8 million. Now to you and me, $8 million is probably financial security for ourselves, our families, the cat, a couple of koi fish and maybe even something more exotic (I'm thinking a wombat would be cool). Heck, the $5 million the two sides are apart would be enough to keep me and mine in surf shoes and sunscreen for a couple of generations. Why wouldn't anyone just take what the Giants have offered and run? Why haven't the two sides reached a Brian Wilson-style compromise? Seems to me that $10.5 million buys a lot of whatever Timmy is stashing under the car seat these days.

The reason is simple: the Giants lowballed their offer. Lincecum's camp has to be absolutely convinced there is no way they'll lose.

Arbitration isn't about compromise. Two sides submit figures and an independent third party picks one or the other. Should the two sides take this thing to the wire, Timmy stands to gain another $5 million on top of the $8 million he's now GUARANTEED to make. The onus is on the Giants to convince the powers that be that Timmy ISN'T worth the extra cheese. That's like telling your main squeeze how much you love her... but you just wish she was someone a little hotter. There's no way that story ends well.

Anyone else see "The Burning Bed"?

The Giants, and Sabean in particular, seem to always be one step behind the curve when looking at the economics of the game, hence their overpayment for stiffs like Rent-a-Wreck and Aaron Rowand. True, baseball has more personalities than Sybil when it comes to dollars and cents but, despite the lower contracts the Orlando Hudsons of the world have been forced to swallow, arbitration figures keep going up.

Here's the problem. In arbitration, a player compares his worth to other players and expects to be paid based on the amount being lavished on his contemporaries. Fair enough. But what happens if you have none? The arbitration rules are very clear. Special circumstances make a player exempt from such comparisons -- and it would seem that winning a Cy Young in each of your first two full seasons would qualify as special. The last "special" player to go this route was Ryan Howard, and his $9 million award set the standard for arbitration. For the Giants to argue that Timmy is worth LESS is both insulting to Lincecum and, probably, tactical suicide for management.

Had the Giants offered $10 million, I'd say they had a fighting chance. But to offer less than an unprecedented amount for an unprecendeted performance was a foolish gamble. To severely undercut the player's figure (the Giants offered a whopping 35 percent less) puts the arbiter in a position where he likely has to take Lincecum's number even if he feels it's excessive. After all, what are the Giants going to argue -- that Lincecum didn't drive in enough runs? They can talk about Howard playing every day as a comparable, but Lincecum need simply point to $20-plus million hurlers like Santana and Sabathia (or across the dugout at Zito) and ask how many Cy Youngs are sitting on their overpriced trophy shelves.

The way I see it, there is only one way to get out of this maze alive. Come arbitration time the Giants simply profess their undying love for Timmy and take what they've got coming. Consider the $13 million a gift -- he could have asked for (and gotten) Sabathia money.

While we're at it, the Giants should ignore the calls to sign Lincecum long term. Since they've chosen this route, see it through. It could be the one responsible thing they do. The guy from Paragraph One just had a stroke, but hear me out.

At $13 million, Lincecum is reasonably priced compared to what the top pitchers are getting. Sign the checks, shut up, and thank the stars that he's under team control for four more years. Let Lincecum set the bar each off-season, and this time make a reasonable offer. If he does well, he'll make more. If he fades, gets hurt, or if the economics of the game go into the tank, his price tag will go down. The Giants won't have another Zitotross hung around their necks.

Consider this: would you take Lincecum right now on a four-year/$70 million contract?  Santana is currently making a $23 million a year for six years and can't stay healthy. Figure Timmy goes to arbration each if the next four years and actually gets raises: let's go $13 million, $15 million and finsh off with two for $20 million or so each. That's a bargain. Only then will the Giants have to decide if a 30-year-old pitcher is worth a franchise deal or if he's the next Kevin Brown.

Lincecum's unprecedented success has also given the Giants an unprecendented opportunity. In the age of guaranteed contracts that pay marginal athletes way too much, the Giants have the chance to actually see a player paid year-to-year based on performance. At the very least it would avoid another year of paying Dave Roberts $9 million to watch his lawn grow.

And four years down the road we can always hope there be an decent GM in place to make that call.

3 comments:

  1. I have no problem at all with going year-to-year with Timmy. Whether we have a different GM in 4 years or not, the strategy is still sound. The total cost over 4 years of going year-to-year is probably actually less than the cost of signing him to a 4 year contract right now, because his value will probably never be higher than it is right now. As great as Timmy is, I'm not convinced his arm isn't going to blow up sometime within the next 4 years. If it does, hey, the Giants aren't stuck with $40 M to payoff for zero production. If he remains healthy, great, go ahead and pay him. He's well worth the price.

    ReplyDelete
  2. I don't think the Giants will even bother to try to argue against Timmy's salary request based on performance. They will instead make their case in terms of arbitration precedent:

    1. Ryan Howard is the current record holder at $10 M.

    2. A star pitcher is not worth as much as a star hitter.

    3. The current economic climate has depressed salaries in baseball, so even if a pitcher is worth as much as a hitter, Lincecum should get less than Howard because of salary deflation over the last 2 years.


    The recent trend in arbitration is for the arbitrators to side with management. There is a chance, albeit maybe small, that the arbitrator will look at Timmy's request of $3 M more than what Ryan Howard got and think it is excessive. $8 M is closer to $10 M than $13 M is.

    Yes, it's a gamble, but the Giants probably think they have almost as much chance of winning with the $8 M offer as with a higher offer, so why not go for it? If they win, it not only holds down their payroll for this year, but possibly blunts Timmy's demands in subsequent years too.

    ReplyDelete
  3. Guillermo Mota! jk.

    Giants should have offered 10, but 8 looked obtainable 2 weeks ago. Recent free agent signings make 8 look like pathetic underbidding now. Hindsight baby. It's always right.

    ReplyDelete

Think I'm right? Think I'm crazy? Got different slant on things? Bring it on!