Monday, April 5, 2010

Opening Day: Here We Go Again!

It's Opening Day, that time of year where every would-be scribe dishes out his predictions for the upcoming season. Rather than bore you with obscure stats that divine why PECOTA and CHONE divided by the vernal equinox are either incredibly prescient or undeniably idiotic -- a stance which has little to do with merit and everything to do with agreement -- we'll get it out of the way.

The Giants, in the Ranter's opinion (I love it when people go third person) can be expected to take a step backward. At year's end they'll be at or around .500. Since I'm convinced you can throw a blanket over the Giants, Dodgers and D-backs in the quest to be runner-up to Colorado -- the team the Giants aspire to be -- let's split the difference and peg the Giants for third place.

So much for predictions. No one needs a Ouija Board to figure out the Giants. This is essentially the same team they had last year. That was good for 89 wins, but the rest of the division (with the obvious exception of LA) got better. The Giants stood pat.

Brian Satan keeps running the same game plan. The Giants inked five position players in the off-season -- and three of those moves involved re-upping their own guys. BS (how appropriate) shelled out just south of $35 million to bring back Freddy Sanchez, Bengie Molina and Juan Uribe while adding in Aubrey Huff and Mark DeRosa. These five heroes (and I say this as a guy who drafted Sanchez for his fantasy team --- albeit in the 26th round) aren't difference makers. They hit a combined .266 last year with an OBP that could be equaled by the walker brigade from "The Producers" and an OPS surpassed by most Little League teams. I hadn't seen numbers that frightening since my last Ameritrade statement.

By the way, isn't it telling that Sanchez was still around in the 26th round of a 14-team draft when the second base position is such a fantasy abyss? Jeez, Melvin the Stat Geek knows more about this guy's value than the so-called experts that infest the Giants upper management positions, and Melvin hasn't been out of Mommy's basement since Miami Vice was cancelled. Hell, I only took him because the 14 guys still on my draft sheet were probably going to start the season in AA. And if you think that's bad, I had to struggle to avoid putting the gun barrel in my mouth when I needed a sixth starter and found myself shamefully whisper the name "Barry Zito".

I simply do not understand the philosophy. CHONE puts the Giants in the bottom four teams offensively, right where they were in 2010. Really? Sabean keeps throwing cows in with the horses and expecting them to gallop. Hey, Brian. No matter how you dress it up, IT'S STILL A FREAKING COW!!! A team that couldn't hit last year won't hit this year either.

Worse, continuing to bring in marginal players makes it impossible to bring up new talent. Posey and a cheaper vet have imminently more upside than the Human Glacier, yet Molina is back. Uribe got a three-fold raise to be utility man (take that PG&E). DeRosa's signing ensured that either Scheirholtz or Bowker gets the old Spanish Archer, just like the plethora of AARP infielders mandated the exile of Frandsen to Boston in exchange for a pair of used battling gloves and a leaky rosin bag.

The strength of this team is pitching, and any team that starts with Lincecum and Cain at the top of the rotation has something to build on. I have to say I can't complain too much about the arms, although I still preferred Pucetas as the number five over Wellemeyer (a decision I'm sure was predicated by contract as much as by performance). With Romo, Affeldt and Wilson set to hold down the back end I like the broad strokes of the pen. And while I didn't feel the extensions for Cain and Wilson were necessary, and least the Giants have a pretty good idea what their staff, and the salary structure for same, will look like for the foreseeable future.

But the Giants seem intent on building upon this glorious foundation with substandard materials. "Excuse me, ma'am. Nice house, strong foundation. Now do you want the granite countertops or should we just lay dry wall over some old milk crates?"

We saw it over the weekend, outslugged 17-5 by the A's on Friday night before squeaking out a win on Saturday vs Chad "When does my shift at Safeway start?" Gaudin. This team can't depend solely on pitching -- especially if Wellemeyer replicates Sunday's outing and can't find the strike zone with a map and a flashlight. Pucetas got shipped to Fresburg why?

No matter how good your pitching is, the arms sometimes take a holiday. If you can score runs, you've still got a shot. The Giants haven't learned from the past two seasons. You can't win a 0-0 game. Even if you've got a staff ERA under 4.00, you've still got to score those four runs to win a ball game. The Giants can't do that on a regular basis, which means yet another year where the Giants waste good arms (and Wellemeyer).

Speaking of which, why is it that once again the Giants spent the off-season lauding their young arms yet felt compelled to go to outside sources to fill out the staff? It happens every year. Sabean has a serious Jones for other people's property. Wave a pitcher in his face and he's got to have it. He had to have Matt Morris, Dustin Hermanson, Matt Herges, Bret Tomko, etc. What gives? Are the young arms really good or is Satan simply blowing smoke up our collective backside and desperately trying to cover his tracks? Maybe it's just ADD, wave a hurler around and watch him twist his neck screaming "squirrel!"

And here's something few are talking about -- expect the Giants' team ERA to go up this year, and not just a fraction. The need for offense was poorly addressed, and in doing so the Giants dramatically weakened their defense. Huff could play first base with a fork and a boxing glove and no one would notice, and DeRosa is no threat to Ussein Bolt. On the bright side, Renteria is (supposed to be) healthy, meaning he'll have lost two steps instead of three. We won't even talk about Panda and Uribe, who make one wonder if the Giants are recruiting an offense or an offensive line. Unless the hurlers plan on a lot of 15-strikeout games, they're in deep excrement.

Brian Sabean seems to concentrate on only one thing at a time. It's all about starting pitching. Or it's all about finding a closer. It's all about defense. It's all about a big bat. It's all about OBP. What about balance? Boston can pitch and hit -- the Cursed Red Sox win titles. The Rockies have built a team that can do both -- they're the odds-on favorite in the NL West. The Cardinals show balance year after year and are always in the hunt. Discussion of the Giants invariably centers on an unaddressed weakness. And so it is this year.

Friends, I want to be wrong, but I see this season going down faster than Captain Sully after encountering a flock of geese. I fear yet another season of pain coming on.

1 comment:

  1. Another example of a "blogger" who makes inflamatory comments in order to insite others to do the same in response. Nothing in your rants are intersting or informative. Are you a Dodger fan hiding in orange and black? And mix in a spell check.

    ReplyDelete

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